CRSA Research in the Media: Raphael Flepp on Chance in World Cup Prediction Pools

As the World Cup 2026 continues, Swiss outlet 20 Minuten examined a familiar phenomenon: in prediction pools, casual fans with little football knowledge often outperform self-declared experts. For context, the newspaper turned to Prof. Dr. Raphael Flepp, Assistant Professor of Sports Data Based Management and Economics at the University of Zurich and CRSA member.

Flepp points to a structural feature of football: as a low-scoring sport, relatively few goals are scored, meaning that individual, partly random events, a deflected shot or a rebound, can decisively shape the outcome of a match. Football knowledge improves prediction accuracy, but it cannot fully offset the high degree of randomness in the result.

This assessment connects to Flepp's research focus: his work addresses the role of chance and systematic bias in evaluating sporting performance, including studies on outcome bias and expected-goals models in European football.

Read the full article here: 20 Minuten, Tipp-Phänomen: «Mama hat null Ahnung, aber liegt immer richtig»